This Hacker News discussion revolves around the definition, measurement, and implications of poverty, particularly focusing on international poverty lines and their adjustments. Here's a summary of the key themes:
The Need for an Absolute, Inflation-Adjusted Poverty Line
Several users argue for a poverty line based on the objective cost of essential goods and services, adjusted for inflation. This perspective emphasizes a stable, real-world measure of deprivation.
- "The poverty rate should be based on an absolute amount, adjusted for inflation in the staples, like food and shelter." (cbeach)
- "We should disregard any statistical data whose collection is politically biased." (cbeach)
- "There should be a universal human standard to define what extreme poverty is--i.e. the amount needed to secure food, shelter, and clothing--and then that amount should be assessed country-by-country (or region-by-region) by an independent body." (dudeinjapan)
Criticism of Relative Poverty Measures and Median-Based Lines
A significant portion of the discussion critiques poverty lines that are tied to a country's median income or wages. Critics argue these methods can lead to counterintuitive or politically manipulated outcomes.
- "Usually they choose a deliberately stupid measurement such as 'household income below a percentage of the median wage'." (automatic6131)
- "This is stupid for many reasons, including (but not limited to): non-monetary, in-kind benefits being excluded, perverse outcomes such as a decline in median wages 'reducing poverty' and just about guaranteed continuation of this 'poverty'." (automatic6131)
- "That's actually my point: if you take (e.g.) 65% of median income, in a world with a Gini coefficient of 1 - perfect inequality - the rate of poverty is 0%." (automatic6131)
- "I wish these numbers were percentile relative to the local economy and not in made-up 'international dollars'." (pc86)
- "It means absolutely nothing that 1.1B people live on $3-5/day and a different 1.1B live on $5-7. Can you survive in the local economy on $2/day? Then $4/day is not that bad, and $7/day is doing pretty well." (pc86)
Political Motivations Behind Poverty Line Adjustments
A recurring theme is the suspicion that changes to international poverty lines are driven by political rather than purely statistical or economic considerations, often to maintain funding or influence for NGOs.
- "Any other kind of adjustment (like, for example, this latest intervention by the World Bank) is political in nature." (cbeach)
- "When the benchmark changes, you should ask 'why.'" (mannyv)
- "TFA the number of people in extreme poverty dropped when using the old IPL value, and went up with the new value. So politically, no NGO wants to say poverty decreased, because that might reduce urgency, and thus priority. So moving the goalposts means a 50% increase in poverty instead of a 20% decrease in poverty. Which one benefits your mission more?" (mannyv)
- "Did the improved statistical methods trigger the IPL revision? It's hard to tell without internal world bank docs. I'll bet it did." (mannyv)
The Concept of "Extreme Poverty" and Progress Made
Despite criticisms, some users acknowledge progress in reducing extreme poverty, highlighting that the definition of what constitutes "extreme poverty" has evolved, potentially making historical comparisons complex.
- "The extreme poverty line has remained essentially the same (adjusted for inflation) for a few decades. Projecting backwards in time, most people in every country used to be in extreme poverty. We are on track to eliminating extreme poverty within our lifetimes." (btilly)
- "They've adjusted the poverty line upwards. But just watch, life keeps on improving." (btilly)
- "appointment: Where are people living on $3/day getting fat?" (appointment, responding to btilly)
- "I think this is a good change, but maybe would be better to leave the old standard alone in real terms and then make a new category? 'the poor will always be with you'" (datadrivenangel)
Data Visualization and Distribution of Global Income
The discussion touches upon the way global income data is presented and interpreted, with some users criticizing how distributions are visualized, suggesting they don't accurately reflect the reality of global income disparities.
- "I am not a fan of their initial 'Global Income Distribution' curve. if you take the actual data at the bottom of the article and plot it; it does not make anything the resembles a standard distribution as portrayed." (datax2)
- "I find the plots of distribution of global income here very illuminating - https://www.gapminder.org/income-mountains-dataset-v2/ Because the nicely shaped bell curves used in TFA are not at all what the distribution actually looks like. There is a significant right-skew. Don't miss the log-scale on x-axis in the first few graphs as well." (CGMthrowaway)
The Complexity and Sensitivity of Measuring Poverty
Several participants acknowledge that defining and measuring poverty is inherently difficult and often politically charged, with differing national contexts and data collection methods. Disagreement exists on how to best represent these complexities.
- "How do you think developing counties come up with their poverty lines? This new international number is just the median of those…" (isbwkisbakadqv)
- "Defining and measuring poverty is a sensitive topic with juked stats in every country." (Hilift)
- "The UK for example, has a poverty rate of 46% for families with three or more children. The poverty rate for Pakistani households is 47%. Around 7% of the UK is considered destitute. This data is rarely discussed because it is too unpleasant, and no-one wants to connect the inability to fund the national budget with the lack of money." (Hilift)
- "The US does the same with occasional outlandish claims of 'lifting nn% people out of poverty' by spending on programs that usually don't last." (Hilift)
- "I'm no international poverty economist, but I imagine lower income relative to neighboring countries would still have some effect. For instance, if a poor country suffers a famine in its staple crop, can that government and its citizens afford to import food?" (vharuck)
- "That’s a fair criticism but given how the economy has globalized, people also exploit that discrepancy by hiring remote workers abroad so it’s not completely irrelevant" (vlovich123, responding to the irrelevance of international dollars).