Biofuels Policy, a Mainstay of American Agriculture, a Failure for the Climate

Here's a breakdown of the key themes discussed in the Hacker News thread regarding biofuels and their alternatives, supported by direct quotes:

Economic Viability and Farming Practices

Several users discuss the economic realities of biofuel production and their impact on farming. The initial comment sets the stage:

• "This has been obvious for anyone doing the basic math since the beginning. It was great for farmers though." (lazide)

This notion is then refined to focus on larger, investor-backed farms:

• "It was great for large investor backed farmers who bought out their neighbors via debt, leased expensive John Deere equipment via debt, and are now trapped." (itsanaccount)

The discussion touches upon subsidies and their effects:

• "In terms of a use of money it is a good way to subsidize the american corn farmer. Whether you believe that is worthwhile depends on your views of WWIII." (asdff)

And the difficulty of removing these subsidies:

• "The easiest fix might be pushing for faster adoption of BEVs. Nobody can easily take subsidies away from farmers." (adrianN)

Carbon Neutrality and Land Use

A recurring theme is whether biofuels are actually carbon neutral, and the land use implications are heavily debated.

• "It goes full circle: where does the carbon in the biofuel come from? The plant. Where does the carbon in the plant come from? The air. This is why biofuels are carbon neutral in theory at least. There is of course loss in process like in most things." (asdff)

However, other users quickly point out the practical complexities:

• "The devil is in the details. Where did the land used to plant it came from? What was there before? Deforestation emits a lot of CO2. Fertilizer needs fossil fuels to be manufactured, tractors and harvesters burn diesel, et cetera." (Qem)
• "Biofuels are just incredibly land (and water) hungry. In the post fossil fuel age, biofuels will be reserved for special applications, if that (and for providing carbonaceous feedstocks for the organic chemical industry.)" (pfdietz)

The use of agricultural waste (stover and cob) is brought up as a potential solution:

• "not if you use stover and cob. in those cases, you use net zero new land (you were growing kernels anyways)" (throwawaymaths)

But this is countered by:

• "Using a process that no one is using. Ethanol from cellulose failed." (pfdietz)

The environmental costs related to opportunity costs of land use are also brought up:

• "It's always worth being sceptical about some of these claims about processes magically being carbon net negative since cleaning up the atmosphere might not actually be what's paying the bills leading to inherent conflicts between selling a product (ethanol) and doing an environmental service. Switching to EVs will allow you to use much less land to fuel the cars with wind or solar energy and then the leftover land can be used for carbon sequestration and rewilding/biodiversity projects where that's the sole focus of the operation." (magnuspaaske)

Bio-Ethanol Production Attempts and Their Failure

Several comments address past efforts to produce bio-ethanol commercially.

• "There was a bunch of activity in the 2000s and 2010s trying and failing to do this commercially." (rgmerk)
• "yes I'm aware. in that era, which was last i tracked this field, BP had a pilot plant that reached commercial and greenhouse breakeven, but then they lost the deepwater horizon case and scuttled their biofuels research, I'd be surprised if no one caught up. did no one catch up?" (throwawaymaths)
• "My thought is if the plant was on track to success but was killed by corporate politics somebody else would have tried again. The demand for carbon-neutral liquid fuels isn’t going away; long-range shipping and aviation aren’t going to run on batteries." (rgmerk)

Comparison to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)

A significant portion of the discussion compares biofuels to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) as a solution to environmental concerns. There's a general lean towards BEVs being more efficient regarding land usage:

• "BEVs powered by PV use two orders of magnitude less land than ICEVs burning biofuels." (pfdietz)

However, the shortcomings of BEVs are also noted, including pollution and weight:

• "BEV are not a serious climate solution unless you are talking about ebikes. BEV also contribute a load of pollution to waterways via tire wear. ebikes are cheaper to purchase and make a significant change." (paddy_m)

Despite these concerns, a more moderate opinion is presented:

• "They're not a panacea, but they're better than gas/petrol/diesel (or biofuel) cars across the board. Emissions have dropped and air quality has measurably improved in places with high BEV adoption, like Norway and China." (decimalenough)

The weight of BEVs is debated:

• "Last time I checked, a Tesla 3 (a small car by NA standards) weighted 1800kg. That's twice the weight of my 1987 VW Jetta and very close to that 2T you mention. The weight issue is real; it affects the driving dynamics and makes the energy problem worse in many ways." (speed_spread)
• "Modern cars are generally overweight. A 1987 BMW 325 weighted 1200kg. Considering the advances of materials science and digital technology, weight should have gone down, not up. What's the daily purpose of that extra 600kg, other than protecting against an eventual collision with a monstruous pickup?" (speed_spread)
• "BEVs are not that much heavier than comparable ICEs. All modern cars are too big and too heavy. From an energy standpoint weight is less of a problem for electric cars because they can recuperate." (adrianN)

It is also mentioned that safety standards have increased:

• "Colliding with 1t of car is similarly deadly as with 2t of car. Traffic fatalities have gone way down in the past forty years." (adrianN)

Ethanol as a Fuel Additive

The role of ethanol as an octane booster in gasoline is mentioned.

• "Isn't a large part of ethanol it's use as a fuel additive that it boosts octane and is relatively cheap? Compared to leaded gasoline it seems very "green"." (Forge36)

This is confirmed by another user:

• "You literally proved Forge36's point. Ethanol is the replacement for lead in gasoline." (imtringued)

However, the overall environmental impact is questioned:

• "Turning solar power into something we use to destroy the environment doesn't strike me as very "green" at all. Quite the opposite. I can't imagine it's a very efficient use of money, either." (MangoToupe)