The obstacles to scaling up humanoids

Here's a summary of the themes discussed on Hacker News regarding humanoid robots:

Current Capabilities and Practicality

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around whether current humanoid robots are capable enough to justify their existence and marketing. Many users express skepticism, viewing the demonstrated capabilities as rudimentary and far from prime time.

• "chmod775" states, "When these things can make a burger without help I'll change mind, but right now they're not even close to that. Everything I've seen so far makes them look like clumsy pieces of junk." They also criticize, "I haven't even seen one make a sandwich without a human having to prepare every step for them so they could then perform 'cutting motion' or 'stack ingredients' (painfully slowly and shaking like a geriatric)."
• "sjsdaiuasgdia" found a recent demonstration "painful," noting, "It took a few seconds to reply to a simple greeting. Its next bit of speech in response to a query of where to get a Coke has a weird moment where it seems like it interrupts itself. Optimus offers to take Benioff to the kitchen to get a Coke. Optimus acknowledges Benioff's affirmative response, but just stands there. Then you hear Musk in the background muttering that Optimus is 'paranoid' about the space. Benioff backs up a few feet. Optimus slowly turns then begins shuffling forward. Is it headed to the kitchen? Who knows!"
• "chmod775" adds, "These aren't. They're not even ten percent there. I don't get why you'd try to mass-produce and market them."
• "nradov" shares a similar sentiment regarding robot vacuums: "I've owned several Roomba type robots, both actual Roombas and competing brands. None of them have really saved any time or labor. They always get stuck under furniture or tangled on charger cables. They don't work on stairs. And clearing dog hair from the roller is a huge hassle."

Humanoid Form Factor vs. Specialized Robots

There's an ongoing debate about the necessity and advantages of a humanoid form factor compared to specialized robots. Some argue that "the world is built for humans," making humanoid robots ideal for existing infrastructure, while others contend that specialized robots would be more efficient and cost-effective.

• "chmod775"'s core point is: "I explicitly said they're going to get outperformed by specialist robots, just like the humans they poorly imitate sometimes are."
• "BurningFrog" states, "The whole point of humaniod robots is that they can work in environments designed for humans. And the world is already full of those!"
• "ACCount37" counters the idea of alternative form factors: "And what would that 'other form factor' be? Can that 'other form factor' climb stairs? Or operate existing power tools? Or get into a generic car to get transported to a new workplace? Or get teleoperated by a human with mocap gloves?" They further explain, "The vision is that instead of building 9999 specialist robots for 9999 different tasks, you mass produce one robot model that can do all of them. Less efficiently, sure, but for the manufacturing, logistics, maintenance? The economies of scale are immense."
• "numpad0" questions the uniqueness of the vision: "This just occurred to me: do standard industry robotic arms not fit that description perfectly? They're not specialized for any particular task, the only customizable parameters are the size and the end effector."
• "HarHarVeryFunny" agrees that the world is built for humans: "The premise itself seems bogus though - there's plenty of tasks such as traditional assembly line and conveyor belt automation where a stable robot bolted to the floor, with a wired power source and custom manipulators is going to be a much better option." They also highlight the advantage of wheeled robots for many tasks: "For a mobile robot stability and reliability are key, and it's hard to see how a humanoid robot would be anything other than a massive downgrade for applications like Amazon's warehouse robots, hospital drug delivery robots, mall security robots, robot vacuum cleaners, etc. Wheels for the win."
• "bbarnett" adds: "Sort of replying to others in this part, the reason people are all hung up on humanform, is that our entire world is made for humans. Whether stairs, doors, sidewalks, doorknobs, cupboards, or even space to walk in a small kitchen... it's all made to work with human shape and size. So if you solve humanform, the robot can go anywhere and manipulate/do anything a human can. That means no change to the environment when you get one. Right or wrong, that's why everyone is after humanform."

Economic Viability and Cost

The financial aspect of humanoid robots is a major concern. Users question the high perceived cost, the long-term maintenance expenses, and whether they can compete with human labor on a cost-performance basis.

• "sjsdaiuasgdia" exclaims: "The reaction to that should not be 'OMG I cannot wait to pay you $200-$500k for one of these!' It should be 'You want HOW MUCH for THIS? Are you nuts?'"
• "ACCount37" believes the economies of scale will be immense if a universal robot can be mass-produced.
• "moffkalast" questions the efficiency trade-off: "The question is how much less efficiently. The point on which it all hinges is that it needs to be a little less efficiently, but the reality is probably that it's so much less that it's no longer really viable." They cite Digit's cost: "Like, Digit costs a quarter mil and is rated for 10 thousand hours. It can stack boxes. For that price you can turn every box in your warehouse into an AGV and they'll last you forever."
• "ralusek" offers a specific price point: "If a robot costs $50k, lasts 5 years, and does the dishes and laundry every day, I'd consider it."
• "LeifCarrotson" draws parallels with existing industrial robots: "Unless you think the humanoid robots are going to wear out significantly faster than existing robots, wear and tear costs are negligible." However, they note the final barrier: "Eliminating that last human - the one that makes decisions instead of moves materials - with a humanoid robot is going to take decades."
• "datadrivenangel" breaks down the cost competition: "If a humanoid robot is ultimately 33% as productive as a worker in a developing country who gets a wage of $10k USD annually and works 8 hours per day every day, then then robot has to cost less than $10k annually all in to be a good replacement." They estimate the threshold: "Assuming a 5 year useful lifespan and $2k in maintenance per year, results in the robot needing to cost ~$40k before it can replace a human's productivity."

Potential Benefits of Robots over Humans

Despite the criticisms, some users highlight the inherent advantages businesses might find in employing robots over human workers.

• "xandrius" lists several benefits: "- No pain - No breaks - No protesting/strikes - No rises needed - No happiness to take care of. All things business find annoying."
• "the_sleaze_" expands on costs: "Cost of human is much higher. Taxes, healthcare, breaks, brain-damage related to their emotional maintenance, safety requirements, etc."
• "zdragnar" points out the upgradeability of robots: "Human flesh and blood is pretty bad at upgrading itself, too. A sapient robot, or one with specific programming, might adapt itself as parts wear out when individual components, limbs, and other odds and ends are separately serviceable."

Future Potential and R&D Investment

While current capabilities are questioned, there's recognition that the technology is evolving, and current R&D investment, even for imperfect systems, accelerates future progress.

• "zerotolerance" argues for the importance of current effort: "Nobody is buying them today. But these shaky clumsy versions didn't exist even a few years ago. The hype promises these things tomorrow, which is obvious BS. But the better they look today the more investment will be poured into their R&D which accelerates real improvement, which accelerates investment, etc."
• "ACCount37" connects autonomous driving AI to robotics: "Tesla went into humanoid robots because they noticed what kind of thing was their AI architecture developing into. They realized just how much of what an autonomous vehicle needs to do to navigate real world roads is similar to what an advanced robot would need to do to operate in real world environments."
• "AndrewKemendo" notes the speed of development: "It’s actually going faster because it does not require public approval the same way that driving cars do because you’re in public space. We’re seeing a lot of robotic trials happening in private warehouses and on private test ranges at pretty rapid scale."
• "rapsey" defends the current stage of development: "As with any new technology, it has a chicken and an egg problem to overcome. Humanoid robots are developing very rapidly now that AI is progressing the way it is."

Dexterity and Hands

The physical manipulation capabilities of humanoid robots, particularly their hands, are identified as a major hurdle.

• "SequoiaHope" states: "My pet issue is that the dexterity of the hands is still really poor. A human hand is incredible with what it can do."
• "sjsdaiuasgdia" echoes this concern regarding the potential for self-repair: "The 'Replace tiny parts' option... What parts is the manufacturer making available for purchase and what does the supply chain look like for that? What tools are needed to do the disassembly, part installation, and re-assembly? Can a humanoid robot out in the real world replicate the clean room conditions in which delicate components were assembled then sealed inside some compartment so dust can never get to them?"

Maintenance and Durability

The long-term maintenance, wear and tear, and potential for robots to maintain each other are discussed as critical factors for their economic viability.

• "numpad0" raises concerns about longevity: "Human joint longevity is insanely long by standards of robotics, and supplier costs only go up."
• "bbarnett" suggests that durability is a design choice: "We can make things that last for decades, we just choose not to... We don't do this, companies don't do this, because it's not best for profit."
• "Teever" proposes a collaborative maintenance model: "Have you factored in the ability for humanoid robots to be able to do preventative maintenance and repairs on each other? ... Imagine if everyone had a domestic robot and if it broke down their neighbour's robot could repair it. That would be an extremely user friendly and cheap way to deal with the problem."
• "sjsdaiuasgdia" is skeptical of this "neighbor's robot" maintenance idea, highlighting the complexity: "A humanoid robot is so much more complex than something like a washing machine. There are far more things to break." They also question manufacturer incentives: "They make more money if you buy a new robot, or you pay them to fix your broken robot. Maybe 'fix this other robot' ends up on a list of forbidden tasks the robot will always refuse to do..."

Data and AI Advancements

The progress in AI, particularly with LLMs and transfer learning, is seen as a key enabler for humanoid robot development.

• "ACCount37" points out the role of "transfer learning": "If you trained a robot to fully strip down a specific e-scooter model... that training data would then help with any similar tasks. As well as a variety of seemingly unrelated tasks that also require manual dexterity, manipulation and spatial reasoning."
• "ACCount37" further links AI development to the interest in universal robots: "The triumph of LLMs then made it glaringly obvious that the kind of advanced decision-making that you would need to power truly universal robots is no longer in the realm of science fiction, so a lot more companies followed."
• "AndrewKemendo" emphasizes the importance of data capture: "The real challenge is actually capturing demonstration recordings from humans because it’s the hardest thing to instrument. The core task is instrumenting data capture of existing human tasks that are not done through machines, such that they can transfer to machines."

Geopolitical and Economic Drivers

The influence of national security and China's development pace are mentioned as external factors driving investment and technological progress.

• "mandevil" discusses the origins of semiconductor and battery technology advancements: "Semiconductors themselves were the result of (US) national security investment... China was willing to invest into this field for national security reasons."
• "wolttam" states, "The pace of development in China can't be ignored. The consumer market for a pretty dumb household chore bot is huge."

User Acceptance and Niche Applications

There's discussion about whether consumers will eventually desire humanoid robots for domestic tasks and the potential for near-term niche applications.

• "HarHarVeryFunny" questions the desire for domestic robots: "I seriously doubt many people really want C-3PO in the kitchen washing the dishes even if he is managing to do it without breaking anything or short-circuiting himself."
• "EcommerceFlow" believes the article "understates the demand a robot would have for even just simple household tasks like folding laundry."
• "SequoiaHope" suggests that "widespread use" might be far off, but "niche uses near term" are possible.
• "JKCalhoun" compares the current situation to early computer adoption: "We have Roombas. I saw a number of Husqvarna lawn robots in Sweden... But neither of these are exactly flying off the shelves. Humanoid robots feel like they're decades away for being something people would want."
• "rapsey" counters this regarding robotic vacuums and lawn mowers: "Roombas and lawn robots are all extremely popular."
• "stackedinserter" sees parallels with early home computer skepticism: "Of course there always be 'There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home' people, that's life."